Trade prospects.
Railways.
44
from Lower Burma or from India proper. Commodities cannot bear the greatly enhanced prices which such long transport entails. That the roads may be improved by engineering skill and by proper attention to repair is probable, but there is no prospect that the authorities will provide the means. Nor is there any likelihood that they will lighten the burden of taxation, which so greatly impedes exchanges, except under pressure from without. Traders complain that Burma-China trade is severely handicapped by the failure to enforce transit passes on the Bhamo-Tali-Fu route. Considering the great impetus given to the trade vid Mengtsz by the enforcement of such passes, it has been suggested that the British Government should take speedy action in this matter. Trade, even under present conditions, could be greatly facilitated by the opening of more Treaty Ports. Tali-Fu in west Yunnan, Hsünchow, Nanning, and Pose on the upper West River, Chiating, Chengtu-Fu, Luchow, Yachou, and Sui-Fu in Ssuchuan, are peculiarly suitable. It is also worth considering whether the Chinese could not be constrained to withdraw their prohibition against the import of salt. According to Mr. Holt Hallett, Russia is not prohibited from sending salt into China, and England roay fairly demand the most favoured nation treatment.
With regard to the future, it must be remembered that Yunnan has no valuable exportable product except opium, and although the vegetable, animal, and mineral products are varied, there is no evidence that they are sufficiently plentiful to form the foundation of a greatly extended trade. The restricted area available for cultivation, the scanty supply of labour, and the almost complete absence of capital preclude any large production of com- modities. The people's mode of life is primitive and their wants are few, so that their demand for foreign goods is not great. Prince Henry of Orleans has admitted that the province is not very rich, and M. Rocher has cast doubt on the question whether foreigners can profitably exploit the mines. Recent commercial missions were strongly impressed with the poverty of the people and the wild character of a large part of the province, and Mr. Bourne thought that the recovery of Yunnan from the effects of the rebellion had been slow beyond belief. Whatever the causes of this lack of progress-and they are doubtless many-it is clear that with such a low degree of economic development, there is no sufficient prospect of trade to justify a heavy outlay on railways.
Railways to certain points within Yunnan do not appear to be imprac ticable, and they may possibly repay the cost of their construction. Those projected from Kunlon to Shunning (or Tali) and from Laokai to Yunnan- Fu can probably be constructed, and possibly also lines from Bhamo to Momien, from Mandalay to Kenghung, and from Pose to Yunnan-Fu. But railways across Yunuan appear to be quite out of the question from a com- mercial and financial point of view, for they could only be built at a very high cost, which neither the British nor the French Government could be expected to guarantee. No available route has yet been discovered for a Burma-Yangtze railway. According to Mr. Little, the distance from Chungking to Tali- Fu is 47 stages of 70 each. As to the character of the country to be traversed, authorities all concur. Mr. Bourne, in his earlier report, spoke of this railway scheme as quixotic. Davenport said there was no level road along the main route from the Yangtze to Momien, while Mr. Lenz, an American cyclist, stated that in going from the Yangtze to the Burmese frontier he crossed 44 ranges of mountains in 1,724 miles. According to M. Rocher, the configuration of the country and the expense of construction (which the Chinese Government would not incur) forbid railways; and, moreover, the earnings would not correspond with the enormous outlay on the gigantic works which would be involved, not to mention the inevitable difficulties with the authorities in the districts to be traversed. M. Chailley Bert also agrees that the realisation of the various railway schemes is not within measurable distance. Mr. Hosie, who has traversed all the chief routes connecting Yunnan-Fu with Ssuchuan, has spoken of the absurdity of the attempts to tap Ssuchuan through Yunnan, which is hemmed in west and south by range after range of formidable mountain barriers.
If the main object of a Burma-Yangtze line be political, viz., to prevent the French from driving in a wedge between Burma and the Upper
45
Yangtze, it is worth while to recall M. Brenier's declaration that the projected French line from Toukin to Yunnan-Fu will not be the work of a day, and that a line north of Yunnan-Fu to the Yangtze is practically impossible. M. Leroy-Beaulieu says that even if the Red River were, what it is alleged to be, a "splendid navigable waterway" instead of having only half a metre of water in parts for the greater portion of the year, the French would still have to construct difficult and costly railways in order to tap the whole of the Yuunan trade. The extension of these lines to the Yangtze for the diversion of the trade of Ssuchuan to Tonkin, he regards as a purely visionary idea owing to the mountain barriers to be traversed. By the time France has carried a railway to Laokai, it may be hoped that the Mandalay- Kuulon line will be completed, and when France begins an extension to Yunnan-Fu, England will probably be ready to proceed to Shunning or Tali-Fu. Travellers, as already remarked, agree that the country between the Salween and the Yangtze is unsuitable for ordinary railway construction, though they differ as to the population, the nature and quality of exportable produce, and trade possibilities. A railway could never carry goods from Rangoon at rates that would enable them to compete with the sea and river borne goods that reach Hankow by steamer, and then go to Chungking by junk. Bombay yarn and Indian opium, the chief exports to China, would still go by sca. But a line that would not pay commercially might be justified by strategical reasons, and if England intends to make an effective occupation of the Yangtze basin, a railway from Tali to Chungking is almost indispensable. It will, however, subserve Imperial rather than purely Indian objects, and its cost should not, therefore, fall upon Indian revenues. A British line from Nanning to Pose and Yunnan-Fu would be useful for supporting British interests in Yunnan, but from the West River the most effective line would perhaps be one from Kowloon through Kwangtung and Hunan, to connect with a line running from some point on the lower Yangtze to Chungking or Chengto.
H. J. TOZER.
India Office, October 1898.
NOTE on the Chiushakiang, or Upper Yangtzekiang.
The Chinshakiang (River of Golden Sand) is one of the two great streams- the other being the Min-that unite to form the Yangtzekiang at Sui-Fu. As Western China is opened up, the valley of this river must become a subject of great importance. The China Association has recently advocated "the survey of a railway between Burma and the highest point of navigation on this river.
This point is usually stated to be Pingshan, about 50 miles above Sui-Fu (see pages 38-9), and the boatmen of Captain Blakiston in 1861 refused to ascend above this town, beyond which only small boats penetrate owing to the rapids. As it is, the boats have to be carried round some of the more dangerous rapids. Mr. Hosie, in travelling by boat from Manissu to Pingshan (50 miles), encountered twenty rapids. The fact that practically no boats ply on the Chinsha above Manissu is strong evidence that the river is unnavigable, for the Chinese utilise water carriage whenever possible.
6531.
M
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